48 research outputs found

    QES-Fire: A dynamically coupled fast-response wildfire model

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    A microscale wildfire model, QES-Fire, that dynamically couples the fire front to microscale winds was developed using a simplified physics rate of spread (ROS) model, a kinematic plume-rise model and a mass-consistent wind solver. The model is three-dimensional and couples fire heat fluxes to the wind field while being more computationally efficient than other coupled models. The plume-rise model calculates a potential velocity field scaled by the ROS model\u27s fire heat flux. Distinct plumes are merged using a multiscale plume-merging methodology that can efficiently represent complex fire fronts. The plume velocity is then superimposed on the ambient winds and the wind solver enforces conservation of mass on the combined field, which is then fed into the ROS model and iterated on until convergence. QES-Fire\u27s ability to represent plume rise is evaluated by comparing its results with those from an atmospheric large-eddy simulation (LES) model. Additionally, the model is compared with data from the FireFlux II field experiment. QES-Fire agrees well with both the LES and field experiment data, with domain-integrated buoyancy fluxes differing by less than 17% between LES and QES-Fire and less than a 10% difference in the ROS between QES-Fire and FireFlux II data

    Cross-realm assessment of climate change impacts on species' abundance trends

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    Climate change, land-use change, pollution and exploitation are among the main drivers of species' population trends; however, their relative importance is much debated. We used a unique collection of over 1,000 local population time series in 22 communities across terrestrial, freshwater and marine realms within central Europe to compare the impacts of long-term temperature change and other environmental drivers from 1980 onwards. To disentangle different drivers, we related species' population trends to species- and driver-specific attributes, such as temperature and habitat preference or pollution tolerance. We found a consistent impact of temperature change on the local abundances of terrestrial species. Populations of warm-dwelling species increased more than those of cold-dwelling species. In contrast, impacts of temperature change on aquatic species' abundances were variable. Effects of temperature preference were more consistent in terrestrial communities than effects of habitat preference, suggesting that the impacts of temperature change have become widespread for recent changes in abundance within many terrestrial communities of central Europe.Additionally, we appreciate the open access marine data provided by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea. We thank the following scientists for taxonomic or technical advice: C. Brendel, T. Caprano, R. Claus, K. Desender, A. Flakus, P. R. Flakus, S. Fritz, E.-M. Gerstner, J.-P. Maelfait, E.-L. Neuschulz, S. Pauls, C. Printzen, I. Schmitt and H. Turin, and I. Bartomeus for comments on a previous version of the manuscript. R.A. was supported by the EUproject LIMNOTIP funded under the seventh European Commission Framework Programme (FP7) ERA-Net Scheme (Biodiversa, 01LC1207A) and the long-term ecological research program at the Leibniz-Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB). R.W.B. was supported by the Scottish Government Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS) through Theme 3 of their Strategic Research Programme. S.D. acknowledges support of the German Research Foundation DFG (grant DO 1880/1-1). S.S. acknowledges the support from the FP7 project EU BON (grant no. 308454). S.K., I.Kü. and O.S. acknowledge funding thorough the Helmholtz Association’s Programme Oriented Funding, Topic ‘Land use, biodiversity, and ecosystem services: Sustaining human livelihoods’. O.S. also acknowledges the support from FP7 via the Integrated Project STEP (grant no. 244090). D.E.B. was funded by a Landes–Offensive zur Entwicklung Wissenschaftlich–ökonomischer Exzellenz (LOEWE) excellence initiative of the Hessian Ministry for Science and the Arts and the German Research Foundation (DFG: Grant no. BO 1221/23-1).Peer Reviewe

    Abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with a variant in low-density lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1

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    Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is a common cause of morbidity and mortality and has a significant heritability. We carried out a genome-wide association discovery study of 1866 patients with AAA and 5435 controls and replication of promising signals (lead SNP with a p value < 1 × 10-5) in 2871 additional cases and 32,687 controls and performed further follow-up in 1491 AAA and 11,060 controls. In the discovery study, nine loci demonstrated association with AAA (p < 1 × 10-5). In the replication sample, the lead SNP at one of these loci, rs1466535, located within intron 1 of low-density-lipoprotein receptor-related protein 1 (LRP1) demonstrated significant association (p = 0.0042). We confirmed the association of rs1466535 and AAA in our follow-up study (p = 0.035). In a combined analysis (6228 AAA and 49182 controls), rs1466535 had a consistent effect size and direction in all sample sets (combined p = 4.52 × 10-10, odds ratio 1.15 [1.10-1.21]). No associations were seen for either rs1466535 or the 12q13.3 locus in independent association studies of coronary artery disease, blood pressure, diabetes, or hyperlipidaemia, suggesting that this locus is specific to AAA. Gene-expression studies demonstrated a trend toward increased LRP1 expression for the rs1466535 CC genotype in arterial tissues; there was a significant (p = 0.029) 1.19-fold (1.04-1.36) increase in LRP1 expression in CC homozygotes compared to TT homozygotes in aortic adventitia. Functional studies demonstrated that rs1466535 might alter a SREBP-1 binding site and influence enhancer activity at the locus. In conclusion, this study has identified a biologically plausible genetic variant associated specifically with AAA, and we suggest that this variant has a possible functional role in LRP1 expression

    Genome-wide association identifies nine common variants associated with fasting proinsulin levels and provides new insights into the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes.

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    OBJECTIVE: Proinsulin is a precursor of mature insulin and C-peptide. Higher circulating proinsulin levels are associated with impaired β-cell function, raised glucose levels, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes (T2D). Studies of the insulin processing pathway could provide new insights about T2D pathophysiology. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We have conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association tests of ∼2.5 million genotyped or imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and fasting proinsulin levels in 10,701 nondiabetic adults of European ancestry, with follow-up of 23 loci in up to 16,378 individuals, using additive genetic models adjusted for age, sex, fasting insulin, and study-specific covariates. RESULTS: Nine SNPs at eight loci were associated with proinsulin levels (P < 5 × 10(-8)). Two loci (LARP6 and SGSM2) have not been previously related to metabolic traits, one (MADD) has been associated with fasting glucose, one (PCSK1) has been implicated in obesity, and four (TCF7L2, SLC30A8, VPS13C/C2CD4A/B, and ARAP1, formerly CENTD2) increase T2D risk. The proinsulin-raising allele of ARAP1 was associated with a lower fasting glucose (P = 1.7 × 10(-4)), improved β-cell function (P = 1.1 × 10(-5)), and lower risk of T2D (odds ratio 0.88; P = 7.8 × 10(-6)). Notably, PCSK1 encodes the protein prohormone convertase 1/3, the first enzyme in the insulin processing pathway. A genotype score composed of the nine proinsulin-raising alleles was not associated with coronary disease in two large case-control datasets. CONCLUSIONS: We have identified nine genetic variants associated with fasting proinsulin. Our findings illuminate the biology underlying glucose homeostasis and T2D development in humans and argue against a direct role of proinsulin in coronary artery disease pathogenesis

    Development of a Low-Cost Aspirated Temperature Measurement Radiation Shield

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    Presented at the 34th Conference on Agricultural and Forest Meteorology in June 2021. Measuring air temperature accurately with low-cost sensors is difficult due to solar radiation, which heats up the sensor and causes it to record a higher temperature. Even with the industry standard radiation shield, solar radiation still affects measurements. To better mitigate this problem, a fan can pull air over the sensor; this is called aspiration. Though aspirated units are available commercially, they are prohibitively expensive for use on distributed sensor networks. This project was focused on designing and validating a low-cost housing unit using aspiration to more accurately measure air temperature

    Assessment of ecosystem integrity and service gradients across Europe using the LTER Europe network

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    Better integration of knowledge from ecological, social and economic science is necessary to advance the understanding and modelling of socio-ecological systems. To model ecosystem integrity (EI) and ecosystem services (ES) at the landscape scale, assessment matrices are commonly used. These matrices assign capacities to provide different services to different land cover types. We revised such an existing matrix and examined the regional heterogeneity in EI and ES provision in Europe and searched for spatial gradients in their provision to elucidate their suitability for large-scale EI and ES mapping in Europe. Overall, 28 sites belonging to the Long-Term Ecological Research network in Europe participated in this study, covering a longitudinal gradient from Spain to Bulgaria and a latitudinal gradient from Italy to Sweden. As a primary outcome, an improved and consolidated EI and ES matrix was achieved with 17.5% of all matrix fields updated. For the first time, this new matrix also contains measures of uncertainty for each entry. EI and ES provision assessments were more variable for natural and semi-natural than for more anthropogenically dominated land cover classes. Among the main types of EI and ES, cultural service provision was rated most heterogeneously in Europe, while abiotic provisioning services were more constant. Longitudinal and latitudinal EI and ES gradients were mostly detected in natural and semi-natural land cover types where temperature and precipitation are major drivers. In anthropogenically determined systems in which cultural services play a dominant role, temperature and precipitation gradients were less important. Our results suggest that this matrix approach to assess EI and ES provision principally works on broad spatial scales; however, local assessments for natural systems seem to be less generalizable than assessments from anthropogenically determined systems. Provisioning and regulating services are more generalizable than cultural services. Particularly in natural and semi-natural systems, spatial gradients need to be considered. We discuss uncertainties associated with this matrix-based EI and ES assessment approach and suggest that future large-scale studies should include additional land cover information and ecosystem disservices and may determine ES fluxes by differentiating between ES provision and consumption

    Prepare to lead: how schools, federations and chains grow education leaders

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    A numerical study of the impact of vegetation on mean and turbulence fields in a European-city neighbourhood

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    Vegetation in the urban environment has various impacts on microclimate. While optimal strategies for investigating these impacts are the subject of ongoing research, most approaches rely on Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. We evaluate mean wind and turbulence fields simulated using the fast-running Quick Urban &amp; Industrial Complex (QUIC) Dispersion Modeling System, a simplified CFD tool that resolves buildings and vegetation. We use QUIC to investigate the role of deciduous trees in modifying the airflow of a real neighbourhood in Bologna, Italy by running large ensembles of simulations per case study, obtained by varying the input wind direction. This approach can minimise intrinsic model uncertainty as well as uncertainties associated with real environments. Model validation is performed using measurements from an experimental field campaign focused on a vegetated urban street canyon in Bologna. Ensemble simulation results show good agreement with the experimental data for various conditions (i.e., simulation ensembles overlap experimental variability in most cases). The role of trees is investigated by comparing simulations with and without trees. Trees are found to reduce airflow by constraining local circulation and reducing turbulence intensity. Finally, the combined effect of building morphology and vegetation is investigated by adopting a formalism to represent the presence of vegetation using area-fraction coefficients. An area-fraction coefficient threshold of 0.225 has been identified that separates flow behaviours and is present in cases with and without vegetation. Below this threshold, a constant wind and turbulence regime exists, while above the threshold, winds and turbulence vary with area-fraction coefficient
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